Budget Travel Online’s “Web Smart” feature has an interesting piece this month about the business of predicting airline ticket prices. Two sites, Farecast and FareCompare use historical pricing data on your route of choice to determine whether the current fare will likely increase or drop in the near future. Their example has prompted sites such as Expedia and Kayak to include pricing history, but only for searches conducted on their sites. If your route is unusual, there may only be one or two previous searches offered for comparison. The more comprehensive sites, however, aren’t problem-free. FareCompare’s process is described as “difficult” and complicated (can’t say I don’t agree), and ultimately pushes you out to external fare-booking sites like Orbitz, whose surcharges may eat up a lot of your savings. Farecast generates an admirable amount of useful data, but, despite the fact that it advertises 75% accuracy of its results, a recent Seattle Times story found they were only on-the-money 61% of the time. This is offset somewhat by a brand-new Fare Guard feature: for a $10 fee, you can save the lowest fare you find for a week, and, if ticket prices subsequently go up, Farecast will send you a check for the difference between what you paid and the saved fare. As a promotional deal, Fare Guard only costs $3 if you book before February 1. Fare prediction sites might not deliver completely on their promise, but they’re still helping travelers make more informed choices–always a good thing. On that note, here are Budget Travel’s three tips for “Smarter Searches”:

1. These days it’s rarely in your interest to book more than two months in advance. The exception is for high-season flights and routes with infrequent connections, when buying four or more months ahead may get you a better deal. In low season, it’s OK to wait as few as three weeks before departure.

2. No matter how good a fare is at a booking engine, always see if the airline website has a better one. All things being equal, book directly with the airline.

3. Try to get an idea of what fare you’re hoping to pay; Farecast and FareCompare reveal the best prices other folks have found. The cheapest seats disappear quickly, so have your exact dates, names of people going, and your credit card handy. Pounce the moment you see a good price available.

– Online Travel Booking
– “How accurate is Farecast’s forecast of airline fares?” (Seattle Times)
– “Buy It Now or Hope for a Better Airfare Tomorrow?” (Budget Travel Online)